The Market Vision Chronicle - Jan 15, 2011: Market Crashes, Onion Prices and More..

The Market Vision Chronicle

This has been a week of data and more data, and then some data. Our newsletter gives you a quick summary, further reading and more interestingly, a chart of onion prices since 1994.


Going Downhill

The markets have crashed more than 8% in two weeks. And there are a significant number of reasons why.

Rate hikes: The market is expecting a rate hike, it seems. Some seem to think the hike will be as much as 75 basis points. (one basis point = 0.01%) Typically rate hikes tend to depress equity prices. But do they?

In the last year alone, RBI has raised the repo rate 1.5% - or 150 basis points, in six increments from 4.75% to 6.25%. That hasn’t done much for inflation, and seems to only be a big positive for equity – markets rose from the 5400 levels to new highs of 6300, and since then have crashed to the 5700 levels thrice. The last time we went UP to 6.25% was in 2005, and in March 2007 the repo rate was actually 7.75% - and that was a phenomenal year for equity. Even a 75 bps rate increase from here will only take the Repo rate to 7%. We aren’t really in danger territory are we?

(Source of repo rate data:

China Overheating: Meanwhile, China has raised its interest rates by 50 bps. That economy, if it slows down (let alone crashes) has a huge impact on the rest of the world. Rising inflation there has been a cause for concern – it’s not a democracy, so they are perennially afraid of a revolution, and inflations have caused revolutions. China, of course, has manipulated everything formerly known as data, so we will never get a true picture; why should we get worried now?


FII and DII Net Data FIIs pulling money out: Sure, they’ve been sellers in the last two weeks, but they buy and sell in bunches. They went nuts in September last year, and took the index up 15%; but then they put in more than 35,000 cr. In two months. In the last two weeks, they have only taken out 4200 crores. There’s a problem with magnitude.

International cues: Other than China, Europe has shown signs of strain, with Portugal and Spain bond issuances and market problems. But this is only a great heading when you have nothing else – someone on twitter said that when nothing sticks, you can always blame global cues.

Reasons abound, and there will always be more reasons. Budgets, RBI, Scams, Political problems and who knows what. The only thing we can control is our reaction to these events. On my part, I have been reducing net exposure (by adding short positions), and looking for opportunities to invest.

Like I wrote last week, we have yet to even reach our 200 day moving average, which for the Nifty is still around 5,600 (and the Nifty’s at 5657). Is this the turning point? I wouldn’t know, but one way to play this is to buy call options on the Nifty. As always, I suggest you keep a stop loss for every stock, and respect it. And quite importantly, it’s result season, and there will always be some stocks that look attractive – from strong results, and strong relative strength. Time to filter wheat from chaff.   

Onion Prices

Everyone’s been going nuts about how much onion prices have moved in the last ten years.
Onion Price Chart
Technical note: The index changed bases from 94-95 to 04-05, in August 2010. Data after August has been readjusted to the old index to demonstrate continuity.

Look meanwhile at other commodity prices – in the area of food we tend to use often.
Prices of Potato, Cabbage, Brinjal and Rice

The upward pressure isn’t quite as much for other vegetables or rise, and there are obvious elements of seasonality. So is this a one-off rise, or something much more serious? Time will tell.

Onion prices aren’t a big deal, it seems, when you look at weights. Onions have a weight of 0.18%, and that is less than Chicken, Mutton, Rice, Wheat and Milk. But we are fond of our pyaaz, at least for newspaper headlines.

Weights of Items in the Wholesale Price Index

At Market Vision



Three stock results were noteworthy this week. HDFC Grew EPS 30.46% with a strong quarter. Sintex showed a 55% increase in EPS, and Infosys disappointed with a 6%EPS increase. I look at EPS growth rather than net profit because:
  • Companies like HDFC constantly give stock options, thus diluting existing shareholders. EPS growth is the correct way to measure such stocks.
  • Revenue growth can be fudged in some way or the other, by adding costs and increasing expenses. You have to look at net profits.
  • Companies may acquire other companies, or give promoters warrants, or provide for FCCBs. Diluted EPS is really the only way to measure real growth.
  • Sure, there are other measures to evaluate companies. More videos on the way!

Blogs, News and Videos

We had a Short Take about how Recovering from a Steep Loss is tougher compared to when the losses are smaller. Everything in the market is relative!


Other news:

Status and Feedback!

Our chat process has gotten delayed, but we’ll do that next week. Apologies. We’ll announce the date on the blog.

Our twitter account is active! You can now follow

More short takes are on the way, and we’re working to bring you more financial results in the best way possible. Keep watching for a separate piece on the budget, including education on why it’s important. It’s an education for us too – we still don’t know why it matters so much nowadays.  

We would love your feedback and comments. Tell us at

Worriedly about Onion Prices,

Deepak and Shyam
The MarketVision Team

Showing 80 comment(s)

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There are several motives for this and today I'll converse about this several things. All 3 of these aid affect thecollege football bettingspread and over/under of each and every activity.

Just not too long ago, sports betting sites have received their aspiration matchup in the 2012 NBA finals. Hundreds of thousands of individuals especially in the US experienced flock more than sports activities betting web pages to put on their bet on the young staff Oklahoma plus the veterans crew Miami, But no matter what staff plays within the NBA finals, figures show that soccer remains king. Let's consider a closer search and make some early predictions on several of this year's top rated game titles from a betting perspective. They're some seriouscollege soccer bettingodds so you wouldn't choose to pass up this.

Alabama Over ten Standard Time Wins (-115): My stance on this just one is simple. With the many players 'Bama lost on defense, this crew may be very very likely going to lose a soccer sport this year. I don't assume I'm surprising you with that declaration, primarily using a schedule that features journeys to LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina and Tennessee, together with home dates with Florida and Auburn. But seriously, I don't see a whole ton of downside to this wager,wholesale nfl jerseys. Alabama has absent undefeated two regular seasons in a very row. Even when they lose a video game this yr, you're still a winner. If they lose two you receive your hard earned money back.

Auburn Under eight ½ Standard Season Wins (-105): Glimpse, I get why all people likes Auburn coming into 2010: They had been pleasurable to observe past 12 months. They score a good deal points. They've got significantly improved depth this period than final. They signed a monster recruiting course in February. They introduced Cam Newton in at quarterback, and the upgrade from him to Chris Todd could be like riding all over on a Huffy your total lifestyle then getting handed the keys to your Maserati on your own sixteenth birthday. For the similar time however, aren't every one of us slightly far too psyched about them,cheap jerseys? I imply, they did drop five of their last seven typical time online games to end 2009, and essential a prayer and a miracle to defeat Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. Which yr, the SEC West is as serious as it can be at any time been. There are no uncomplicated night's within the league, more so during this division.

USC In excess of nine ½ Standard Time Wins (-165): I know that the depth is often a big-time challenge. I get it. But for the many discuss about USC's demise very last 12 months, remember, they however obtained nine wins, using a freshman quarterback and nine new starters on defense. Just as importantly, the timetable breaks properly for them in 2010 with Notre Dame, Oregon, Cal and Washington all at your home.

Iowa About eight ½ Frequent Period Wins (-200): I definitely like Iowa. But I do assume they require fifty percent a step back this yr, generally due to the fact quarterback Ricky Stanzi bought himself into and out of far more trouble than everyone in school football last yr. Yes he went 10-0 in games that he started out and completed in 2009, but in addition threw fifteen picks to go together with his 17 touchdown passes. Assume me, I watched those game titles, and if Stanzi were being a cat, he would've had run away from 9 lives by about Week 6, and had to consider out a bank loan over a handful of more to finish the season. Very well, the bill is due on that mortgage, and I feel Iowa gets tripped up several moments this calendar year Then again, the plan is in their favor in 2010, with Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State at home, so I do not believe they're a four decline team either. An early season excursion to Arizona scares the you-know-what away from me, but I however believe they get the win from the desert.
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Les esprits ennuyeux comme Wilson, (je dis ennuyeux et non chagrins pour ne pas être soup?onné de mettre une quelconque forme d'affection dans cet adjectif, et puis aussi pour inciter Wilson à me démontrer le contraire car je ne résiste pas à la perspective d'un pari, n'est-ce pas ?), les esprits ennuyeux comme Wilson, donc, répondront que oui. Ils jureront, la main levée devant le texte d'Hippocrate, que je me disperse chaussures louboutin. Voyons en quoi, ils se trompent.J'étais un rameur de très bon niveau lorsque j'étais au lycée puis à l'université à Oxford. En deux de couple, on s'était qualifié pour représenter la Grande-Bretagne aux championnats du monde junior d'aviron. Je suis certain que Foreman (toujours prêt à formuler une évidence) en tirerait la conclusion qu'il y a là quelque chose de génétique. Mon père était médecin et il fut médaillé d'or dans cette discipline aux Jeux olympiques de Londres en 1948. Mais, je ne vois pas ce que l'hérédité vient faire là-dedans.Si vous ne voulez pas passer pour un complet imbécile, envisagez l'argument du destin. Au moins, cela prouvera que vous avez des lettres et que les heures que vous avez passées à la bibliothèque vous ont appris quelque chose et qu'elles n'ont pas été perdues en essayant de lorgner dans le corsage de votre voisine. Le destin, donc, peut faire une explication acceptable. Mais, mieux est l'argument de l'exemple. Pour en revenir aux pelles et au skif, j'ai ramé pour Oxford contre Cambridge et même pour Eton où j'ai poursuivi mes études.Tout ?a pour dire que la tradition, cela a du bon même si elle ne vous protège pas contre la maladie. Je vois déjà se réjouir ceux qui croient que tout est écrit sur un grand rouleau. Que la vie est aussi simple qu'une ligne droite. Et je les imagine en train de tracer cette ligne entre la fichue mononucléose (qui a coulé ma carrière de rameur) et mon arrivée au Princeton-Plainsboro Hospital. 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Quand vous aurez répondu à cette question, vous aurez compris pourquoi Wilson continue de me supporter depuis toutes ces années. Cela n'a rien à voir avec sa patience ou son caractère arrangeant. Non, si je n'étais pas là, il serait un peu moins vivant et il le sait.Donc, après cette mononucléose, je me suis mis au thé?tre. J'ai rejoint un vieux club d'art dramatique de Cambridge dans lequel j'ai rencontré Emma Thompson qui a quand remporté deux Oscars, l'un en tant qu'actrice et l'autre en tant que scénariste. C'est là que j'ai croisé Stephen Fry, l'un des types les plus doués que je connaisse et auquel avait eu la bonne idée de consacrer un , il y a quelques années. C'était bien le moins qu'il pouvait faire.Avec Fry, on a écrit des sketches pour une émission que nous présentions à la BBC et qui s'appelait A Bit of Fry and Laurie. 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Si je voulais faire preuve de perversité (mais ce n'est pas mon genre), je dirais que cela s'inscrit presque dans la continuité de Everybody Lies. Alors qu'au fond, cela n'a rien à voir. La première chanson St. James Infirmary reprend le thème de Summertime que chantait autrefois Ella Fitzgerald accompagnée par Louis Armstrong (sans doute le plus important jazzman pour ne pas dire musicien du XXe siècle).J'entends déjà Wilson qui me fait remarquer que Seal (qui est un compatriote) a déjà fait ?a avec Soul qui reprend les grands tubes de ce genre musical américain. Que puis-je répondre à ?a ? Rien. J'avais simplement envie de rendre hommage à des artistes comme Dr. John qui est un exceptionnel pianiste ou à Professor Longhair qui aurait pu mourir totalement inconnu en dehors de La Nouvelle-Orleans où il travaillait dans une teinturerie pour payer ses dettes de jeu. Au passage, je vous signale que je suis en concert ce soir au Trianon, mais inutile de vous précipiter, ma réputation m'a précédée et c'est complet.La curiosité étant une vertu, je me suis aussi essayé à l'écriture. Toujours dans le registre de la culture populaire. Un roman policier qui s'intitule The Gun Seller et qui s'est bien vendu. D'accord, ce n'est pas du Colin Dexter, du John Harvey ou même du David Peace, mais c'est plut?t dr?le et léger. Je ne vais pas vous mentir. Cela n'est pas dans mes habitudes. En fait, pas toujours.L'un de mes talents est de n'avoir aucun accent. Pas comme Tim Roth qui fait exprès de parler à la manière des Geordies (les gens qui vivent dans la vallée de la Tyne, en gros dans la région de Newcastle dans le Nord de l'Angleterre). Non, je parle un anglais totalement uniforme. Quand j'ai envoyé ma cassette de démo à Bryan Singer qui avait en charge le casting pour la série House, il a même cru que j'étais américain. Et c'est pour ?a qu'il m'a engagé. Au départ, David Shore et la Fox voulaient absolument un type de chez eux pour le personnage principal. En y repensant, je me rends compte à quel point cela a été facile de leur montrer ce qu'ils voulaient voir. Ce qu'ils voulaient croire. Mais, au risque de me répéter (ce dont j'ai horreur), "tout le monde ment". , le président candidat dévoile deux de ses chantiers prioritaires : la réforme de la loi sur l'immigration et le déficit budgétaire.Cet entretien avec les rédacteurs en chef du journal n'avait pas vocation à être publié : le quotidien avait accepté le principe de la discussion confidentielle, avant d'annoncer dans un éditorial avoir eu un entretien avec le président dont la teneur mérite d'être publiée. La Maison Blanche a accepté, mercredi, d'en diffuser le contenu. Mitt Romney a été lui aussi par le Register, le 9 octobre et le quotidien doit annoncer, samedi, qui d'Obama ou Romney, il soutient.L'interview permet de découvrir le nouveau ton du président : exit les attaques directes contre Mitt Romney, le président se fait programmatique, prend de la hauteur, comme l'illustre sa nouvelle campagne de publicité.GRANDE R?FORME DE L'IMMIGRATIONBarack Obama dévoile ce que pourraient être les premières grandes mesures d'un éventuel second mandat à la Maison Blanche. Il pense ainsi pouvoir faire adopter dans le courant de l'année 2013 une grande réforme de l'immigration, sujet qui tient à c?ur à l'électorat latino.?Conversation d'Obama avec le Des Moines Register. Programme post-2012: réforme de l'immigration dès la première année.— Corine Lesnes (@BicPictureCL) Les Hispaniques représentent désormais 16 % de la population américaine et leur poids électoral grandissant pourrait leur conférer un r?le décisif dans des Etats indécis, tels que le Nevada, le Colorado, la Floride, la Virginie et l'Ohio, où, selon Time, Barack Obama dispose d'un avantage de cinq points. "L'une des principales raisons pour lesquelles je vais obtenir un second mandat, c'est parce que le candidat républicain et le Parti républicain se sont fortement aliénés le groupe démographique à la croissance la plus rapide dans ce pays, la communauté latino", dit Barack Obama. R?DUIRE LE D?FICITLe président se dit aussi certain de conclure un accord avec les républicains sur un plan de réduction du déficit public, un sujet-clé pour les électeurs indécis. "Ce sera probablement compliqué, ce ne sera pas agréable", dit Barack Obama au sujet de ces négociations."Mais je suis absolument certain que nous pouvons parvenir à quelque chose qui ressemble au grand marché que je propose depuis longtemps aux républicains", précise-t-il. "Nous allons être dans une situation où, je pense, au cours des six premiers mois, nous allons régler cette histoire." Il ne précise toutefois pas comment, concrètement, le "mur budgétaire" pourra être évité d'ici la fin de l'année, étant donné l'ampleur de l'antagonisme entre les positions démocrates et républicaines sur les moyens de combler le déficit fédéral.Barack Obama déclare aussi qu'il réfléchirait, au cours de son second mandat, à une "vaste réforme de l'imp?t sur les sociétés" qui baisserait le taux mais élargirait la base."Le président Obama n'a respecté aucune des promesses que le candidat Obama a fait en 2008", a répliqué Ryan Williams, un porte-parole de la campagne de Mitt Romney.Quel que soit le vainqueur de l'élection présidentielle et la couleur du Congrès après les scrutins du 6 novembre, les Etats-Unis risquent de se heurter à un "mur budgétaire" d'ici la fin de l'année, soit avant l'entrée en fonction du nouveau président et du nouveau Congrès. Ce "mur" est d? à l'accord a minima conclu en 2011 entre le président démocrate et le Congrès, où les républicains contr?lent la Chambre des représentants, pour éviter une banqueroute de l'Etat fédéral. Il prévoit une hausse des imp?ts et une baisse des dépenses, toutes deux automatiques, fin 2012, ce qui constituerait un choc pour l'économie américaine. relate link more:

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En la tercera jornada del Miércoles Ciudadano se registró elevada asistencia de personas que acudieron a exponer algún proyecto, solicitar servicios o simplemente a saludar al Alcalde Renán Barrera Concha.?En total fueron 404 meridanos los que acudieron a ese programa en el que, además del Primer Regidor,--Eminenza, fueron atendidos por los directores municipales.?Servicios Públicos Municipales fue la dependencia que más peticiones recibió y de éstas las principales fueron reposición o reparación de luminarias e instalación de rejillas en las calles.?Peticiones de becas y pies de casa fueron los temas recurrentes en la mesa de Desarrollo Social, la cual recibió a 61 ciudadanos.?Obras Públicas atendió a 27 ciudadanos, principalmente por baches en diferentes puntos de la ciudad,D. doudoune moncler pas cher.A Gobernación llegaron 30 solicitudes, en su mayoría en demanda de asesoría jurídica,sac louis vuitton.?Las demás mesas instaladas fueron las del DIF Municipal,beats by dre pas cher, con 33 casos atendidos; Desarrollo Económico, 42, Presidencia, 45 y Atención Ciudadana 58.?La jornada comenzó a las 8:30 de la ma?ana, sin la presencia del Alcalde debido a que asistió a la “Primera Jornada de Consultoría: Ley Federal Anticorrupción, en sus aspectos Relevantes en la Contratación Pública y su Impacto”, de lo que informamos en boletín aparte. Cuando se incorporó al Miércoles Ciudadano fue recibido por nutrido aplauso de los asistentes.La se?ora María Florentina es vendedora en el mercado de San Benito.? Todos los días viene de su comunidad, la comisaría de San Pedro Chimay, a vender “porque no tengo dinero, lo que gano en el día es lo que me sirve para mantenerme”.?Comentó que aprovechó el Miércoles Ciudadano para saludar al alcalde y pedirle que tenga en cuenta a los vendedores y les permita seguir ejerciendo libremente su actividad.?—Desde hace más de 35 a?os me dedico a esta actividad,chaussures louboutin, primero en las calles y desde hace a?os a las puertas del San Benito –a?ade.?Tomás Roberto Valencia Suaste, vecino de la colonia Ampliación Granjas, tiene más de 80 a?os, llegó para denunciar los terrenos baldíos que la pasada administración les heredó porque nunca los limpiaron.??Su calle, dice, es muy transitada y los terrenos baldíos llenos de maleza obliga a las personas a transitar sobre la carpeta asfáltica.—Hace mucho tiempo que conozco a Renán Barrera y sé que es una persona honesta y consciente,ICSC abercrombie france. Sé que quiere sacar al pueblo adelante, no como otros que vienen a llenarse la bolsa y cuando se van ni adiós dicen –comenta.?A la par del Miércoles Ciudadano se llevó al cabo una jornada más de la Feria de la Salud, en la Plaza Principal. En esta ocasión también participaron la Secretaría de Salud estatal,, que instaló un módulo de información sobre el dengue.Este evento comenzó a las 8 horas y concluyó a las 12. De acuerdo con las cifras preliminares, recibieron atención 345 personas con servicios diversos, como atención médica, odontológica y de rehabilitación. En consulta de Nutrición se atendió a 57 personas.,sac louis vuitton pas cher?Los módulos para la detección oportuna del cáncer de mama y cervicouterino registraron una buena demanda, lo mismo que los que ofrecieron información sobre orientación sexual, familiar y? contra la violencia.Otros servicios prestados fueron de pruebas triglicéridos y colesterol, detección de diabetes y toma de presión.- COMUNICADO

El ,Chanceller mór do sello da puridade delRei D. Diniz beats pas cherronquido en el perro se debe a una vibración excesiva de las paredes internas del hocico del animal a causa de la respiración: el aire golpea al encontrar un obstáculo y genera el ruido que se conoce como ronquido.El ronquido en los perros chatosAlgunos perros roncan más que otros,anzi preveniva i suoi desideri. Es el caso de las razas de canes de cara aplastada,, hocicos chatos y pliegues faciales, como los canes de raza , el perro de o el . La peculiar anatomía de estas mascotas dificulta el paso del aire a través del hocico y la laringe: la estructura ósea del hocico es más corta y estrecha de lo habitual.La anatomía de los perros chatos dificulta el paso del aire a través del hocico y la laringeEl aire, en consecuencia, cuenta con menos espacio para entrar en los pulmones y golpea las paredes del hocico. Esto explica el ruido o ronquido habitual que caracteriza a estas mascotas de razas chatas. El llamado agrupa al conjunto de anomalías respiratorias que pueden sufrir los perros de cara aplastada.El perro ronca: algo bloquea la entrada de aireEl perro tiene entre 200 y 300 millones de células especializadas en captar olores (las personas, en el mejor de los casos, cuentan con cinco millones). Este gran número de detectores olfativos explica que el perro sea un animal acostumbrado a descubrir el mundo a través del . Tiene una enorme capacidad para recibir y distinguir olores.El perro olisquea terrenos arenosos o con otras partículas que pueden acabar en el interior de su hocicoSin embargo, el perro no siempre rastrea superficies lisas, No es extra?o que olisquee terrenos arenosos o con otras partículas que pueden acabar en el interior de su hocico. La entrada de objetos extra?os en las vías respiratorias de la mascota puede explicar ciertos ronquidos anormales,moncler.En ocasiones, estos materiales resultan peligrosos para el perro ya que, si cuentan con el tama?o suficiente, bloquean la entrada normal del aire. En estos casos, conviene realizar una pronta visita al veterinario para evitar complicaciones.Ronquidos cuando el can padece una enfermedadConviene distinguir los ronquidos normales del perro de ruidos nasales que pueden avisar de una enfermedadUna mucosidad excesiva puede bloquear y estrechar el paso del aire a los pulmones y generar,tudo se reanimára no
campo, en consecuencia, un ruido anormal,abercrombie pas cher.Pero el ronquido también puede avisar de que nuestro perro padece alguna enfermedad. Es el caso de las infecciones en las vías respiratorias o en la garganta o,casque beats by dre, peor aún, los tumores en la zona del hocico, que son capaces de obstaculizar la entrada del flujo de aire. El veterinario será, en cada caso, quien determine la razón de estos ruidos en la respiración del perro.