Infosys Dec 2010 Results: Not Impressive

Infy announces results. They aren’t that great.

  • Revenues above 7,000 crores. Grew that over 20%.
  • Net profit at 1,780 crores, which is 14% growth.
  • EPS at 31.14 for the quarter (14% growth)
  • Trailing Twelve Month EPS at 115.6 which is just 6% higher.

Graphs and tables. Excuse the rusty excel skills.

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What’s worrying is the TTM EPS growth – it’s looking up slightly but it has been below the much required 20%. Remember, this is a stock at 3,300. That gives it a trailing P/E of 28 or more. We haven’t seen a 28% EPS growth for the last 6 quarters.

Outlook for the next quarter is a 15% EPS growth, but for the FY 2011, the EPS growth will be 9%. That’s horrendously low for a stock valued at that much. I understand a premium for good management, and an extra for the 15,000 cr. in cash they hold (Rs. 300 per share).

My View:

  • Stock has shown price strength but there is little on the fundamental side to support it. Yet, take that piece with caution – Infy is a market darling.
  • The company is too big to grow at a fast pace now, without serious innovation (I mean a Google or Apple could do it – their leverage is their products. Infy can only expand with numbers of people, which is not great leverage. Managing people is a pain, and getting more good people on board and retaining them is an expensive and time consuming exercise.
  • The scale helps them in terms of getting freshers and training them. But as projects move towards fixed bid rather than T&M, having experienced folks will be the differentiator. Fixed bid is now 40%+ of revenues, the highest in recent times.
  • The big kicker was from financial services. Are they going to get hurt badly from the mess in Europe and perhaps emerging market slowdowns?
  • In comparison, the sector has HCL Tech and TCS which on growth history look like a better deal.
  • Not interesting unless you want index exposure. Not very worthwhile to be short, though selling calls isn’t a bad idea, with a 3400 resistance.

Disclosure: One account has long exposure. Will have to trim it.

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